Read Online Pro-globalization via FTAs in times of COVID-19 MOBI
This analysis attempts to offer a counter strategy to the idea of anti-globalization and de-growth that had flared up again since the COVID-19 crisis. All international forecasts expect for the year 2020 the deepest recession since the Great Depression. Countries which can afford it, run a super-Keynesian fiscal policy to fight the crisis, accompanied by an extremely expansionary monetary policy in the United States (Fed) and in the Eurozone (ECB). As a third policy instrument besides fiscal and monetary policy, an aggressive pro-globalization trade policy could relieve and strengthen the crisis macro policy. To demonstrate which options are available we analyze nine mega free trade agreements, some of them are already in effect, others will be enacted soon. Overall, not the big players in world trade, the EU and the United States win by a simultaneous implementation of the nine FTAs. Japan would be the winner because it participates in four combinations (overlaps) of FTAs: EU-Japan, USA-Japan, CPTPP and RCEP. The United States hardly gain from further globalization. Similarly, the EU27 cannot profit much from further globalization.
